Forecasting and modelling
Forecasts and models that show their assumptions, so you can challenge them and plan with confidence.
A forecast is only useful if people trust it enough to act on it. We build models that are as simple as the problem allows, and we show our working.
How we work
We start with a simple baseline, then add complexity only where it earns its keep. We back-test against your history and show you where the model is confident and where it is guessing.
What good looks like
Your finance team can say “we expect between 4.1 and 4.6 million, and here is what would push us either way”, and the board nods because they can see why.
What you get
- Demand, revenue or capacity forecasts you can explain
- A clear range, not a single number
- Early warning when reality drifts from the plan
What we hand over
- A working model with the assumptions written down
- A back-test showing how it would have performed
- A monthly update process your team can run